In this edition of our Baltic newsletter we interview Jesper Andersen – chief scientist at the NIVA Denmark Water Research in Denmark. He is currently leading the project ECOMAR.
Photo: Research Gate
What is ECOMAR?
ECOMAR is a Danish research project focused on developing and demonstrating a data-driven framework for ecosystem-based maritime spatial planning (MSP). ECOMAR kicked off in April 2018 with a partnership between NIVA Denmark (lead), Aarhus University, DTU Aqua and the University of Copenhagen. The project is now in the final phases. The execution of the work and implementation of the ecosystem-based approach is inspired by the Swedish Symphony Decision Support Tool, and the work of BALANCE (a trail blazing BSR Interreg IIIB project, 2005-2008).
The key objectives are to 1) develop state-of-the-art data sets for pressures and ecosystem components, 2) map potential the cumulative effects of pressures, 3) map human activities and, identify potential conflicts between spatially overlapping activities, and 4) produce a draft zoning matrix, and subsequently a draft zoning plan for Danish marine waters.
Why is ecosystem-based MSP important?
A wide range of policies and action plans are anchored in an ecosystem-based approach, including the EU’s MSP Directive, the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD), the Water Framework Directive (WFD) and the HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan. Information on the spatial distribution of species, habitats and populations is a prerequisite for MSP. If a plan or policy does not live up to this, it cannot claim to be ecosystem-based.
What are the common challenges with MSP in the Baltic?
Fully-fledged ecosystem-based MSP requires data sets describing the spatial variation in relevant human activities and pressures and a broad range of ecosystem components, such as plankton, benthic communities, fish, seabirds, and marine mammals. It is also a complex task to consider land-sea interactions, as required under the MSP Directive. And, ultimately, addressing potential combined/cumulative effects of multiple human activities and pressures is a data and labour-intensive task which only a few Baltic Sea countries seem to address adequately. It is not easy to get a thorough overview and understanding of what is included in the national MSP Directive implementation process and the upcoming national MSP plans. With the Symphony Decision Support System, Sweden is a notable exception, implementing a data-driven approach that addresses both ecosystem-based management and cumulative impact in a scientifically sound manner.
What tools that been developed?
ECOMAR highlights the power of combining state-of-the-art data sets and applying existing tools such as EcoImpactMapper and SeaSketch for a broad range of analyses and scenarios. Newer tools have become available since the project launch but the scope of data and model results in ECOMAR is unique in the context of MSP. The partnership has only scratched the surface of what is achievable.
How and why will these tools be useful for MSP?
Decisions on where to locate or alter activities and their pressures should always be data-based and should consider environmental status and sensitivity of species and habitats within affected areas, as well as potential conflicts between activities. Otherwise resulting plans are not based on the best available data and methods and cannot claim to be ecosystem-based. We believe we have set a new standard for ecosystem-based MSP.
Who are the tools targeted at and how should they be used?
The ECOMAR data sets and results were initially intended for demonstration purposes, not for any specific application. ECOMAR aimed to “raise the bar”, demonstrating the combined power of data, tools and analyses. We believe we have been successful in doing so. The ECOMAR partnership will continue, and time will show if others will support the application and further development of data, model and codes for post-processing, for example national authorities in Denmark and Sweden, and international institutions such as the European Environment Agency or HELCOM. We hope that our approaches and results will also be picked up and used by NGOs.
What have been the project’s key results and what has been learnt?
Perhaps the most interesting ECOMAR products have been 1) a comprehensive mapping of combined/cumulative effects of human activities in Danish waters – significantly better than what has been reported before, 2) the first ever mapping of ecologically sensitive marine areas, and 3) scenarios for 2030 and 2050. The most important lesson learnt is that the better the data, the more trust we can put in the results and products.
Have there been any surprising discoveries?
When drafting the ECOMAR project description at the outset, we anticipated being able to show that a data-driven framework based on the best available data and decision support tools could support both MSP process and implementation of the MSFD and WFD. Our hope was that MSP would lead to a better environmental status. Scenarios for the Danish exclusive economic zone (EEZ) for 2030 and 2050, based on national strategies and policies, EU legislation and international agreement such as the HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan were considered.
We were baffled when we saw the results. There is no evidence that MSP will reduce pressures on ecosystems in the Danish marine waters, neither in 2030 nor in 2050. This means that we would not expect to see improvements in environmental status. So we carried out another analysis – the “MSFD Good Environmental Status” scenario, where key pressures on all ecosystem components were reduced, mimicking a wholehearted implementation of the MSFD. To our relief, this scenario shows significant reductions in combined effects, which would in turn be expected to lead to improvements in environmental condition. Still, we believe we have unveiled a disturbing question: are MSPs counterproductive, perhaps supporting an unsustainable Blue Growth agenda, and not the overarching objectives of the MSFD and WFD?
What are the next steps?
First we will finalize the ECOMAR Synthesis Report, which we expect to publish in June. The next step is to document the many data sets. When that is done, we plan to write and submit several scientific publications highlighting various aspects of the work.
The partnership does not think of ECOMAR as a project with a fixed end. We envisage a long-term collaboration and spinoff activities for years to come. Hopefully, others will take an interest in the progress made and start working together with the team.
For more information about ECOMAR, please contact: Jesper Andersen
This article is part of the WWF Baltic Newsletter – May 2020
